Ohh man, I was planning on buying a 5870 this month for $299 (if it's available) but at $399, I guess I'll just wait..
Yep, exactly! However, if I were ATI, I would do the same thing to try to establish leadership in the eyes of the gamer's market once again. Given that there are strong indications that the 5870 would be nearly twice as fast as the 4870 given the sheer increase in trannies, it should be a good amount faster than the $330 GTX 285 cards today. Add in DX11 features and a lack of competition for a couple months.. it makes sense for ATI to do this.
At least it's not as bad as the X1900XTX days. It retailed for $599 for a few months, and buying 2 for Crossfire meant $1200.
A quick history of cards and the RELEASE prices:
Geforce 2 GTS: $300
Geforce 2 Ultra: $500 (25% perf. increase, lack of competition since Geforce1---first single $500 GPU ever, for the leet only!)
Geforce 3: $350 (small perf. increase, DX8.0 features, zero competition)
Geforce 3 Ti500: $350 (marginal perf. increase, competition with Radeon 8500)
Radeon 8500: $300 (buggy drivers, slightly faster than the above when it's not buggy)
Geforce 4 Ti4600: $400 (50% perf. increase, DX8.1 features, 0 competition for a few months)
Radeon 9700 Pro: $450 (100% faster than the above, DX9.0b, 0 competition until the "virtual" 5800 Ultra)
Geforce 5800 Ultra: $500 (scarce quantities, therefore high demand, only DX9.0a)
Radeon 9800 Pro, Geforce 5900 Ultra: $400 (20% faster than the above)
Radeon 9800 XT, Geforce 5950 Ultra: $450 (15% faster than the above, 256MB RAM)
Radeon X800 XT, Geforce 6800 Ultra: $500 (released at same time summer 2004, 100% faster than the above, 6800Ultra had DX9.0c but was 10% slower than X800XT as most games didnt use SM3.0/HDR for a couple years)
Radeon X850XT: $500 (released a few months later, marginally faster.. PCI-E with SLI/Crossfire support was rolled-out, both 6800Ultra and X850XT remained at $450-$500 until summer 2005 with crazy demand during the Doom3 days)
Geforce 7800 GTX: $500 (out in summer 2005, 0 competition for 6 months, 100% faster than 6800Ultra)
Geforce 7800 GTX-512: $650 (scarce, super-fast-- 30% faster than the above)
Radeon X1800XT: $450 (finally out in Nov. 2005, a few weeks later and 20% slower than the above)
Radeon X1900XTX: $600 (Jan. 2006, 20% faster than 7800GTX-512, 0 competition for 4 months)
Geforce 7900GTX: $500 (April 2006, 10-15% slower than Radeon X1900XTX overall--much slower in newer shader-heavy games)
Geforce 7950GX2: $600 (July 2006, Nvidia's first dual-GPU card for retail (equivalent to two 7950GT chips)
Radeon X1950XTX: $450 (Sept 2006, 5% faster than X1900XTX due to GDDR4, hence the lower prices over time as the supply outstripped demand with great 90nm yields while many didnt like the noisy X1900XTX fan)
Geforce 8800GTX: $600 (Nov. 2006, DX10, virtually 0 competition for 16 months)
Geforce 8800Ultra: $650 (May 2007, somewhat scarce at first, 10% faster)
Radeon HD 2900XT: $450 (June 2007, 30% slower than 8800GTX overall)
Radeon HD 3870: $250 (Dec 2007, DX10.1 which was hardly used, still 30% slower than 8800GTX and also slower than pre-emptive $300 8800GT released in Nov)
Radeon HD 3870X2: $450 (Feb 2008, two 3870 chips, 100Mhz faster but with slower memory)
Geforce 9800GX2: $550 (Mar 2008, roughly equal to 2 8800GTS-512 chips, 30% faster than 3870X2)
Radeon HD 4870: $300 (June 2008, 50% faster than 8800 Ultra, 100% faster than 3870)
Geforce GTX 280: planned $550, paper-launch at the same time, 2 weeks later than HD4870 actual release, price reduced to $450 at first availability with $100 rebates.. hardly any faster than 4870 in a number of popular new games at the time, maybe 15% overall which did not impress much after the promises NV made)
You can easily figure which ones are the new generation cards by looking at the model numbers..
Was that a fun lesson of history??
At least the 5870 (which looks to be nearly twice as fast as the 4870) will not be in the $500+ range like many of the previous top-end cards. As the 4870X2 cards have been selling for around $400 nowadays, the 5870 which should be just as fast (and faster whenever Crossfire doesnt scale perfectly well), would do nicely for ATI at a similar price until there's some competition from NV.
It looks like the GT300 will be more of a leap from the GT200 than the GT200 was from the G80. There have been several indications that there will be some massive architectural changes along with a huge, gigantic increase in performance. However, I wouldn't hold my breath this year for GT300 cards. At over 500mm^2 on 40nm, the first spin of GT300 is most likely to not make it. A delay of at least 3-6 months is expected. If the first spin makes it (which is unlikely), we'd be seeing it in December at the earliest. March-July is more likely. It would probably be at least 40% faster than the 5870, so Nvidia would still price it at around $450-500 unless ATI pulls something out of the hat before then.
EDIT: Added dual-GPU cards to the above list.
It is big "thanks" to the popularity of dual-GPU cards that we do not really have to worry about seeing $500+ single-GPU cards. Ever since the release of 7950GX2 cards, we have not yet seen a single-GPU card for over $500 (except for 8800GTX/Ultra which was so far ahead of others at the time).
. o well another 2 weeks of waiting.
